How to develop a theory

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Content

Steps
Part 1 of 3: Harnessing an Idea
Part 2 of 3: Hypothesis Testing
Part 3 of 3: Confirmation of the theory and its further development
Tips

The theory explains why something happens, or how different phenomena relate to each other. It provides answers to the "how" and "why" questions asked about the observed phenomenon. The development of a theory should be guided by a scientific method. First, you need to create a consistent model that explains why and how something happens. Then, based on this model, one should make predictions that are amenable to experimental verification. And finally, it is necessary to check with the help of a controlled experiment what the theory predicts, confirming or refuting the hypotheses put forward.

Steps

Part 1 of 3: Harnessing an Idea

1 Think "why?". Take a closer look at seemingly unrelated phenomena. Identify the underlying causes underlying everyday phenomena, and try to predict their further course. If you already have an idea, consider it in more detail and try to collect as much information as possible. answers to the questions "how" and "why", as well as the relations connecting the considered phenomena with each other.
- If you don't already have a general idea or hypothesis, start by establishing connections between phenomena. Show curiosity when looking at the world around you, and you will surely have an interesting idea.
2 Create a theory to explain a law of nature. In general, scientific laws are a description of the observed phenomena. The laws do not explain why the described phenomenon occurs and what caused it. The explanation of this or that phenomenon is called a scientific theory. Contrary to popular misconception, theories explain laws, and do not turn into them when they are confirmed.
- For example, Newton's law of gravitation was the first mathematical description of the gravitational interaction of two bodies. However, this law did not explain why gravitational attraction exists and how it works. It took three centuries after Newton for Albert Einstein to create his theory of relativity, thanks to which scientists began to understand why and how gravitational force works.
3 Examine the scientific papers that precede your theory. Find out what has already been researched, proven, and disproved by other scientists. Find out as much as you can about your research subject and find out if anyone else has asked similar questions before you. Consider mistakes made in the past so you don't repeat them.
- Use your existing knowledge to better understand the subject of your research. Explore available experimental results, equations, and already created theories. If you are dealing with a new phenomenon, try to build on already proven theories describing phenomena that are close to it.
- Find out if anyone else has created a similar theory before you. Before proceeding with the theory, make sure that it has not been developed previously. If you do not find such a theory, you can develop it further. If someone has already put forward a similar theory, study the relevant papers and see if you can contribute to it.
4 Build a hypothesis. A hypothesis is an educated guess or statement whose purpose is to explain a number of facts or natural phenomena. Suggest a possible explanation that logically follows from your observations: take a closer look at the patterns identified and think about what might cause them. Use if, then:If [X] is true, then [Y] is also true "or"If [X] is true, then [Y] is incorrect. "Formal hypotheses contain" independent "and" dependent "variables. The independent variable is a possible cause that can be changed and controlled, and the dependent variable is observed and measured.
- If in the development of your theory you are going to use the scientific method, then the hypothesis must be amenable to accurate and unambiguous testing, otherwise your theory will be impossible to prove.
- Try to come up with several hypotheses to explain your observations. Compare these hypotheses. See how they agree and how they differ from each other.
- An example of a hypothesis is the following statements: "If skin cancer associated with ultraviolet radiation, then people exposed to intense ultraviolet radiation should be more likely to have skin cancer, "or"If the change in leaf color is associated with temperature, then the leaves should change their color under the influence of cold air. "
5 Any theory at the beginning has the form of a hypothesis. However, the two should not be confused. A theory is a well-tested explanation of certain patterns, while a hypothesis is only a prediction that these patterns will be observed for one reason or another. A theory is always supported by evidence, and a hypothesis predicts a possible outcome and can be both true and false.

Part 2 of 3: Hypothesis Testing

1 Plan your experiment. According to the scientific method, a theory must be testable. Come up with ways to test your hypotheses. Make sure that the experiments you plan are well controlled by trying to separate the event and its supposed cause (dependent and independent variable) from other factors that could complicate the experiment. Be careful and try to take into account all external factors.
- Please note that experiments must be repeatable. In most cases, it is not enough to test a new hypothesis just once. You want your colleagues to be able to replicate the experiment exactly with similar results.
- Let colleagues or scientific advisors familiarize themselves with the methodology of the planned experiments. Ask someone to review your work and give their opinion. If you are working in a group, discuss the theory with your peers.
2 Get support. In many areas of science, complex experiments require certain resources and access to modern equipment. This equipment can be quite expensive and rare. If you are studying at a university, ask for help from teachers and researchers.
- If you are not studying, try contacting the teachers or graduate students of the nearest university. You can, for example, contact the physics department of a university to test your physics theory. If you find a university that is remote from you doing research in an area of interest to you, write to them by e-mail.
3 Keep detailed records. As already noted, the experiment must be repeatable, that is, such that other people can reproduce it, obtaining the same results. Write down everything you do during the experiment. Try not to miss anything.
- If you study at a university, there are probably archives that contain records made by its employees during scientific research. If other scientists want to know more about your experiment, they will turn to such an archive or ask you to provide them with detailed data, so it is imperative that you have all the information they are interested in.
4 Evaluate your results. Once again, carefully study your hypotheses and compare them with the results of the experiment. Take a closer look at the observed patterns. Ask yourself if the results you were expecting were as expected, and think again about whether you took them into account. Regardless of whether these results confirm the hypothesis put forward or disprove it, check for hidden "exogenous" (external) variables that may have influenced the outcome of the experiment.
5 Establish the validity of the experiment. If the results obtained do not support your hypothesis, discard it as incorrect. If the results agree with the hypothesis put forward, then you are one step closer to successfully proving your theory. Record your results in as much detail as possible. If the experiment and the results obtained cannot be reproduced, they will be of much less value.
- Check to see if the results change with repeated experiments. Repeat the experiment making sure the results are correct.
- Many theories had to be abandoned after they were not confirmed experimentally. However, if your theory sheds light on something that previous theories could not explain, it may be an important step forward.

Part 3 of 3: Confirmation of the theory and its further development

1 Draw conclusions. Determine if your theory is well founded and ensure that the experimental results obtained are reproducible. Check to see if the theory can be refuted with the means at your disposal. At the same time, do not try to present it as the ultimate truth.
2 Share your results. In the course of working on the theory and experimentally testing it, you will likely accumulate a large amount of data confirming it. After making sure that the results obtained are reproducible and the conclusions drawn are correct, try to give your theory a slender form that is easy to study and understand. Present it in a logical sequence: first write a "summary" containing a brief description of the theory, then formulate hypotheses, describe the experimental method and the results obtained. Try to break the description into coherent parts. Finally, conclude the research paper with informed conclusions.
- Explain what goals you set, what methods you used, and how you tested the hypotheses put forward. A good scientific article has a logically coherent structure and allows the reader to easily follow the train of thought and action that led to the conclusions.
- Consider your audience. If you are going to share your theory with colleagues working in the same field, write a rigorous scientific article outlining your results and submit it to a specialized scientific journal. If you want to communicate your discovery to the general public, try to present the theory in a simpler form: write a popular science book or article, make a video.
3 Check out the scientific peer review procedure. In the scientific community, theories, as a rule, are recognized as reliable only after peer review. After you submit your article to a peer-reviewed journal, one or several other scientists (reviewers) will familiarize themselves with it, who will carefully study the theory you put forward, the experimental methodology used to prove it, the results obtained and the conclusions drawn from them. As a result, they will either confirm the veracity of your theory or question it. If the theory stands the test of time, other researchers may try to expand it to other phenomena.
4 Continue to develop your theory. It is not at all necessary to abandon the theory after you share it with others. As you lay out your theory while writing an article, you may discover previously unnoticed aspects and new ideas will come to your mind. Don't be afraid to test your theory and correct it until you are completely satisfied with the fruits of your labors. This may require new research, experiments, and scientific articles. If your theory is quite extensive, you may not even be able to cover all of its results and implications.
- Don't be afraid to cooperate. Do not give in to your possessive instinct: it is possible that colleagues and friends can breathe new life into your theory.